MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7adc9a612d8012c19d0595682dd38701a888dbea8653f064a9f43b0fb96bb23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 77c | 12,355$9,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Houston Astros | 24c | 8,729$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.48 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Houston Astros | 23c | 1,310$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.31 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Houston Astros | 23c | 1,013$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.92 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 688.46$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Houston Astros | 24c | 537.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Houston Astros | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Houston Astros | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Houston Astros | 24c | 275$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 23c | 256.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 22c | 255$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Houston Astros | 7c | 195$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 266 | 18.4%49 W · 217 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Houston Astros | 11c | 161.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 23c | 160.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Houston Astros | 13c | 158.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Houston Astros | 13c | 158.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 15c | 127.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Detroit Tigers | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Houston Astros | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 80c | 63.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…2995backed Houston Astros | 24c | 51.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Houston Astros | 24c | 49.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Houston Astros | 24c | 48.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Houston Astros | 24c | 47.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Houston Astros | 23c | 43.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Houston Astros | 24c | 42.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Detroit Tigers | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.