Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc6d485909e1486aa4940f32f6150781773e3d1916bf77cb79daed78d278e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,234 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 79c | 1,058$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.27 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 15c | 814.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 12c | 769.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 592.87$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 76c | 481.87$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 400.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 391.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 390.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 389.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 37c | 358.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 329.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 325.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 65c | 282.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 268.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.05 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 59c | 212.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 204.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 202.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 52c | 194.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 193.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 190$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 55c | 181.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 174.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 62c | 165.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 48c | 164.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 155.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 153.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 78c | 143.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 127.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 126.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 38c | 126$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 39c | 121.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 14c | 115.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 65c | 111.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…547ebacked No | 78c | 102.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…e4b3backed No | 10c | 100.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 26c | 93.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 90.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 81.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 81.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 75.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 15c | 73.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 72.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 32c | 71.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 21c | 68.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 69c | 66.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 64c | 65.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 64c | 61.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed No | 65c | 60.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 39c | 59.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 58.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed Yes | 30c | 56.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 56.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 63c | 56.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 32c | 53.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 32c | 53.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 39c | 51.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 72c | 50.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 65c | 49.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 49.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 31c | 44.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 73c | 42.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 72c | 41.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…d040backed Yes | 30c | 41.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 40.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 50c | 40.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 58c | 40.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 34c | 39.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 38.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 78c | 38.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…a625backed No | 78c | 38.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 63c | 38.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4431…3326backed No | 72c | 37.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…f943backed Yes | 38c | 37.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 28c | 37.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 30c | 33.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…deffbacked No | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 25.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.