TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,234 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01c0…5443backed Yes79c1,058$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2718740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No15c814.29$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed No12c769.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.767233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c592.87$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes76c481.87$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.176725.4%17 W · 50 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c400.46$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No7c391.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No7c390.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c389.24$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…1994backed Yes37c358.4$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.085959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No33c329.11$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes33c325.23$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No65c282.63$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1830664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c268.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.051,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No59c212.87$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.27650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No24c204.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c202.37$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.151,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.491,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes52c194.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1317156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c193.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.391,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes32c190$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes55c181.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.655251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c174.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No62c165.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked Yes48c164.76$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.462740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c155.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.187,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c153.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.641,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes78c143.69$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8331170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c127.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.711,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c126.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.161,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes38c126$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.762832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes39c121.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.332444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked No14c115.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.072850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed No65c111.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.883030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f9…547ebacked No78c102.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4c…e4b3backed No10c100.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7090040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes37c99.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.993145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No26c93.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2318041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c90.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes37c81.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9930141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes32c81.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.211,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c75.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.193,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No15c73.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes41c72.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9e…5421backed Yes32c71.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.771625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No21c68.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No69c66.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2de…ff4fbacked No64c65.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.16460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked No64c61.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.474959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55f5…3767backed No65c60.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.332161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No54c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes39c59.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3316548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No41c58.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.261,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed Yes30c56.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.763447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes43c56.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.171,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes63c56.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes32c53.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.213732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes32c53.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes39c51.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5414544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes39c51.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2725725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No72c50.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6713157.3%75 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.58433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed No65c49.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes36c49.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.489270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes27c49.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.761,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes30c46.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.13,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No31c44.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6622344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No73c42.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.78563.5%54 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No72c41.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea75…d040backed Yes30c41.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed No67c41.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes33c40.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3233839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes50c40.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5513531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes58c40.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes34c39.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0118842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No64c38.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.819250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No78c38.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1919259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2df0…a625backed No78c38.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No63c38.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2429056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4431…3326backed No72c37.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3148…f943backed Yes38c37.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+112%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes28c37.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.784035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No63c36.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes30c33.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.066625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.955129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.29653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2838…deffbacked No73c27.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes39c26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.953661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes39c25.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3211038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.