Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94dc37b62fd17ed3cf42a99d3fa8cc1b28f9ee6e3fa00b55ad90cbb2d005f7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,024 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac35…a625backed Yes | 0c | 22,513$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…06e7backed Yes | 0c | 14,090$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,499$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 596.54$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 54c | 433.98$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 48c | 394.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 349.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 324.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 42c | 293.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 268.08$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 259.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 254.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 222.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 187.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 186.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 36c | 173.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 160.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 55c | 142.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 141.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 139.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 133.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 55c | 125.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 34c | 110.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 56c | 102.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 50c | 100.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 50c | 95.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 92.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 72c | 79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 73.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 72.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 43c | 69.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 38c | 66.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 64.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 49c | 61.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 50c | 59.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 59.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 59c | 58.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 55.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 48c | 51.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 42c | 48.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 63c | 45.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 44.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 60c | 42.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 73c | 42.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…2d4bbacked Yes | 41c | 41.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 41.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 39.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…b19ebacked No | 44c | 38.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 37.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 34c | 37.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 45c | 35.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 36c | 34.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 39c | 34.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 40c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 33.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 32.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…1b20backed Yes | 33c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed Yes | 51c | 30.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 49c | 30.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 30.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 55c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 40c | 28.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77df…8869backed Yes | 38c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 54c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 51c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…11ecbacked No | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 50c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 46c | 22.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 64c | 21.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…8ba6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.