TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,024 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac35…a625backed Yes0c22,513$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…06e7backed Yes0c14,090$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes2c1,499$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9812235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes2c1,033$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes48c596.54$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8218740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes54c433.98$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b64…0ab4backed No48c394.09$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.552744.4%12 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes48c349.5$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.024,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c324.46$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes42c293.47$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes58c268.08$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes24c259.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c254.47$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c222.58$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No46c187.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c186.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes36c173.48$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3559818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c160.3$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No55c142.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.624963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c141.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.881,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c139.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c133.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes55c125.96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c112$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No34c110.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7112567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No56c102.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.137650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked No50c100.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.952740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes50c95.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3930664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c92.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.947,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9e…5421backed Yes72c79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.881625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c73.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes41c72.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes43c69.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes38c66.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes43c64.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes39c64.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes49c61.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No56c59.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes50c59.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes40c59.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes59c58.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.342445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No63c55.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes48c51.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.688727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked No42c48.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.115337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No63c45.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1113157.3%75 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes37c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No50c44.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.312,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No60c42.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.938563.5%54 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No73c42.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4619259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2123547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdccd…2d4bbacked Yes41c41.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes33c41.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.436835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.219449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c39.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c39.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc893…b19ebacked No44c38.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c37.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.453,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes34c37.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.654035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes45c35.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9713531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes36c34.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6390…9bf0backed No39c34.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.975154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes40c33.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.46625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes45c33.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes46c32.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0be…1b20backed Yes33c32.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed Yes51c30.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes49c30.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No55c30.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No50c30.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.13554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed No66c30.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.217261.1%44 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes41c29.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…9e44backed No55c29.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.131520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes40c28.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77df…8869backed Yes38c27.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes50c27.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No74c27.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1329056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes54c26.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No50c26.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.37233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No51c25.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b5…11ecbacked No59c25.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1518337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No64c24.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.041,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No66c24.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes51c23.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0518842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed Yes50c23.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8215339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed No46c22.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3112535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No69c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.828076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd110…fafdbacked No64c21.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.612642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17d8…8ba6backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.522454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.