Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf902edd239f51c6610953adf190f71493f8e1ddb35ec1773a581ccdbc7c805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 27c | 1,163$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.83 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 67c | 811.69$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 74c | 509.64$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 70c | 431.82$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 29c | 413.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 70c | 402.35$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 273.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…b2afbacked No | 25c | 205.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 203.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 73c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 199.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 23c | 172.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 146.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 63c | 138.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes | 75c | 133.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 127.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fd…7f3bbacked No | 24c | 123.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 58c | 117.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 29c | 110.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 75c | 100.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 25c | 96.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 26c | 94.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 79c | 85.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 69c | 74.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 33c | 69.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 21c | 61.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed No | 31c | 61.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…6ef7backed No | 30c | 51.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 47.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 25c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 50c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.