Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Polona Hercog
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf9bb2f681d28ee817006a963596f2ba0530d65c5472b9044f024cb18746997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moyuka Uchijimaof Moyuka Uchijima, Polona Hercog
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Polona Hercog | 6c | 50,187$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.42 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Polona Hercog | 3c | 37,561$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Polona Hercog | 15c | 8,582$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.47 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Polona Hercog | 16c | 3,930$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.89 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 3,427$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.91 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Polona Hercog | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Polona Hercog | 8c | 1,829$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Polona Hercog | 9c | 1,763$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Polona Hercog | 20c | 1,737$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Polona Hercog | 17c | 1,527$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Polona Hercog | 18c | 1,065$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Polona Hercog | 13c | 1,050$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Polona Hercog | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Polona Hercog | 16c | 1,003$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…6dfdbacked Polona Hercog | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Moyuka Uchijima | 79c | 525.44$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Polona Hercog | 16c | 480$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Polona Hercog | 13c | 444.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Polona Hercog | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Polona Hercog | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Polona Hercog | 11c | 250.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…2e00backed Polona Hercog | 7c | 249.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Polona Hercog | 20c | 247.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Polona Hercog | 18c | 226$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 222.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Polona Hercog | 10c | 167.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Polona Hercog | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 97.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Polona Hercog | 17c | 83.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Polona Hercog | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 430 | 54.9%236 W · 194 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Polona Hercog | 14c | 71.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked Polona Hercog | 18c | 69.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Moyuka Uchijima | 80c | 66.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Polona Hercog | 23c | 61.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…1c3cbacked Polona Hercog | 19c | 51.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…4f02backed Moyuka Uchijima | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.