Dota2 · resolved market
Will PlayTime win the 2026 Games of the Future tournament
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d02ccbf1413df568a1b5399a8159f28fc708f9a32b828a42eec57adc8796906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 52c | 511.76$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 25c | 304.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 270.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 43c | 188.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 145$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 64c | 136$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 39c | 129.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 121.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 52c | 80.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 42c | 79.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 64.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 62.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8c00backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…e4d4backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 46c | 24.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 41c | 24.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…3f6dbacked Yes | 60c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PlayTime win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentthis page
- Will LGD Gaming win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
- Will Rune Eaters win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
- Will Team Resilience win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
- Will Vici Gaming win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
- Will Yakult Brothers win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.