MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4bccc3a07f3fbf8d4b181b2b0b4c127be9f3cc9a0312376fb07060271f49bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 3,319$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 3,107$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 29c | 2,596$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.27 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 1,873$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 1,038$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.78 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 1,024$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 1,014$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 911.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 421.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 288.88$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…322bbacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 284.81$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 203.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 168.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 138.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 121.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Diego Padres | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 91.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 88.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 67.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 55.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 48.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 36.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 31.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…db73backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 21.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.