MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843ed0d4712408065f0ab90dfbee1a88572b6f27ea79145aa55d792f4a18a013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 4,286$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,207$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,203$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.91 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 2,055$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.5 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 1,918$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,910$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,821$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 1,220$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 1,095$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.8 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 1,055$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.75 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9340…e829backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 1,052$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,024$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 884.05$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 681.38$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.87 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 635.43$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.51 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 622.8$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.58 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 549.63$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.45 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 435$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 263.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 246.58$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 243.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 239.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 180.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 155.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 123.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 109.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…baf9backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 95.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 94.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 93.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 83.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 60.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 60.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 58.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 55.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 47.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 35.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…9095backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 31.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 30.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 23.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ebe3backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 18.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.