MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5afc2bda7bf2dc4130dfbd8e2953fdb97164c6b28a93aa6dd8712092d36474a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 47c | 148,773$69,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,357.89 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 43,133$22,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,374.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 41,455$22,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,981.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 53c | 15,549$8,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,307.81 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 53c | 13,880$7,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,523.76 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 9,691$5,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 7,647$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.21 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 5,182$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 4,985$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 3,807$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.19 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 54c | 3,703$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.38 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 50c | 1,972$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.72 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,785$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 1,671$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 53c | 1,662$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.97 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.55 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.55 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 1,269$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.06 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 1,024$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 746$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 666.89$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.56 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 53c | 656.03$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 638.51$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 604.31$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 55c | 532.56$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.65 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Over | 53c | 470$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 46c | 427$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 414$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 393.34$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 67c | 302.13$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 34c | 289.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 53c | 241.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 199$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 177.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 52c | 168.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 53c | 150.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 47c | 148.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 146$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 123.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 53c | 119.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 53c | 97.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 52c | 76.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 53c | 76.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Over | 53c | 75.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 74.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 53c | 61.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed Over | 54c | 60.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 53c | 56.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 51.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Over | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 35.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 35.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 78c | 31.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 53c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe7…24a0backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 78c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.