Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d620f68c0de489c155a78b47965772d15617b00f278bb6808326d9284ed9916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Under | 26c | 3,756$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 18c | 2,727$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 25c | 1,986$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.77 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 1,540$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 1,207$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.76 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 76c | 1,086$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 17c | 836.77$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 734.91$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…502cbacked Over | 76c | 711.53$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 17c | 584.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 75c | 568$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 20c | 552.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 25c | 466$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 74c | 423.98$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 79c | 336.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 119 | 68.1%81 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 74c | 310.81$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 17c | 299.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 26c | 296.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 74c | 270.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 6c | 265.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 30c | 213.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 18c | 150.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 80c | 94.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 18c | 76.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 19c | 70.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -12.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 78c | 44.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 74c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Groningen won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.