La Liga · resolved market
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d74552889e23ba607e1e897a22f5d0b46a51602b0111635e7efb90b76af1d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 662.85$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 75c | 491.24$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…4b3abacked Under | 31c | 367.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Under | 31c | 326.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 22c | 295.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 283.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 72c | 257.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 189.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 177.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 69c | 175.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 754 | 51.2%386 W · 368 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 69c | 151.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 69c | 138.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…102bbacked Over | 79c | 138.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…3ec7backed Over | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…1db0backed Under | 15c | 124.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Under | 9c | 120.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 15c | 85.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Under | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 70c | 74.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 73c | 61.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 70c | 56.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 74c | 45.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 71c | 25.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Athletic Club won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.