La Liga · resolved market
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8405566839530eb0fc04f7bc8cd815cde47b5e6b39cec3e726a6de1cbf931217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 1,950$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.72 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 26c | 1,900$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.47 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 1,156$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.05 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 570.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.28 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 470.26$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…3f48backed Under | 78c | 256.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 73c | 238.65$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 175$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 161.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 146.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 19c | 142.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 120.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 56c | 89.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 86.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 73c | 73.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 24c | 68.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Over | 39c | 67.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 38c | 66.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed Under | 50c | 39.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 75c | 36.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 76c | 32.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 49c | 31.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 55c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Under | 67c | 27.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Athletic Club won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.