Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d965ae1fa5ba53ed437dea28e93044328c673561f72c88105c2f72db6cca31e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 2,779$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.6 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 883.45$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 6c | 324.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 38c | 299.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 247$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 236.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 164$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 161.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 140.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…35cdbacked Yes | 52c | 134.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 120.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 120.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 118.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…4390backed Yes | 45c | 112.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 71.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 70.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 48c | 65.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 64.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 61.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…88b9backed Yes | 51c | 57.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 62c | 55.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…3799backed Yes | 53c | 54.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 47.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…a954backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 40.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 37.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.