Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cde49316f45312d066b79b9c4346cc1a70a90aa955792f365bb530bc068b367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 10c | 726.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 595.01$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 30c | 441.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.04 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 38c | 333.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.66 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 75c | 312.9$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 301.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 31c | 242.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 6c | 210.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 187.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 26c | 127.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 124.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 121$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 112.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 74c | 108.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 106.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 103.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 63c | 89.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 63c | 79.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 77.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 50c | 76.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 23c | 64.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 52c | 57.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 61c | 57.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 56.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 70c | 55.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 51c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 51c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…21eabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…fd8abacked No | 63c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 74c | 17.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.