Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96dbdf6002cd1d6dd090952afbb3b556fddefe59b6033d61935b4cbf50a465a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 664.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 15c | 292.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 253.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 23c | 249.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 50c | 245.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 60c | 244.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 228.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 208.47$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 199.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 187.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 34c | 155.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 151.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 79c | 148.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 24c | 127.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 32c | 123.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 114.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 106.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 104.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 34c | 97.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 26c | 93.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 90.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 81.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 78.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 78.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 17c | 78.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 18c | 75.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 71c | 75.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 73.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 70c | 64.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 59.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 55.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 51.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 68c | 50.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 50.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 49.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 48.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…87ffbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 60c | 38.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 29.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…aacbbacked Yes | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.