Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5db55807652bafb7e68d7045e526436d99b011b9d0a13837ad11c3bd560ce91e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 396.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 64c | 313.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 310.92$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 257.63$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 236.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 222.72$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 219.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 218.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 195.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 186.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 155.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 138.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 33c | 134.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 31c | 130.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 117.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 78.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 73.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 69.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 32c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 66.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 65.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 38c | 59.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 59.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 21c | 49.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 30c | 45.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 44.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 43.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 39.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 35.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…b2dcbacked No | 71c | 35.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 31c | 34.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 34.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 33.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 61c | 32.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 30.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 26.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 22.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 19.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 17.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 16.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 68c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.