Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff91378df6d26dbc7c4ebe76fba1a63fde639c7c939b2d08bbd8534494d108a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,683$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 627.58$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 557.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 52c | 312.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 310.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 261.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 224.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 165.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 156.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…534bbacked No | 64c | 156.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 155$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 151$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 35c | 132.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 124.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 43c | 107.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 53c | 102.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 41c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 85.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 52c | 76.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 74.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 69.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 69.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 46c | 67.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 53c | 62.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 56.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 52.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…a36cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 42.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 45c | 41.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 40.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 74c | 35.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 52c | 34.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 49c | 31.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 30.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 41c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 28.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 52c | 26.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 22.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 48c | 21.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…3d4fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.