Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dd4c6641fc67b309108db0c46824b0887199df64289fbf7bf171a12480f8670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,323$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 754.72$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 11c | 661.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 41c | 608.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 508.29$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 34c | 500$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.37 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 301.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 251.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 246.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 181$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 147.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 132$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 128$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 119.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 106.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 99.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 64c | 94.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 94.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 93.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 80.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 76.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 60.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 35c | 58.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 57.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 65c | 50.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…1758backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 47.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 46.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 45.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 44.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 36.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 35.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 36c | 33.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 29.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 28.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 80c | 27.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 20.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 20.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.