Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d0617fb7bcb4c468cb923d15c6d1d4a4c521efe0e43366aeff5f364fa234814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 41c | 1,993$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,715$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 39c | 900$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.95 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 35c | 883.77$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.22 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 489.19$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 391.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 370.38$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 338.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 312.9$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 255.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 238.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 174.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 164.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 150.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 133.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 116.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 50c | 100.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 56c | 89.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…206dbacked No | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 56.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 54.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 52.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 37c | 48.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 47.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 47.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 45.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 41.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 53c | 37.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 47c | 36.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 34c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 33.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 29.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 47c | 28.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 41c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 46c | 26.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 52c | 25.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 59c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 56c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 59c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.