NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Patriots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dd52f38dceb14b1cd3d181b76f5367ac2de1fcac7b1be7cc4206eed51ed9930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriots of Commanders , Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e61…951bbacked Commanders | 29c | 6,995$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Commanders | 26c | 5,507$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Commanders | 2c | 3,545$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Patriots | 70c | 3,188$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.33 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Commanders | 29c | 3,077$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.56 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Patriots | 71c | 2,113$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.67 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Patriots | 72c | 2,050$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.01 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Patriots | 71c | 1,920$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Commanders | 29c | 1,820$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Patriots | 71c | 1,732$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.51 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Patriots | 72c | 1,200$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Patriots | 70c | 999.95$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Commanders | 21c | 999.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Patriots | 71c | 984.88$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Patriots | 71c | 970.98$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Commanders | 28c | 900$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Commanders | 14c | 733.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Patriots | 71c | 721.59$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.26 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…536fbacked Commanders | 29c | 550$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Patriots | 70c | 543.38$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8665…85ecbacked Patriots | 73c | 412.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2fa9backed Commanders | 3c | 373.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Commanders | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 75c | 337.1$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Commanders | 30c | 336.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Commanders | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Commanders | 11c | 306$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Commanders | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Commanders | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Commanders | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Commanders | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Commanders | 19c | 188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Commanders | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Commanders | 28c | 164.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Patriots | 71c | 142.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Patriots | 71c | 141$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Patriots | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Patriots | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Commanders | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Commanders | 29c | 108.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…5f99backed Patriots | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Commanders | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…56d0backed Commanders | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…effcbacked Commanders | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Commanders | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Commanders | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…9858backed Commanders | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…6ab8backed Patriots | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Commanders | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Patriots | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Commanders | 28c | 60.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…04fdbacked Commanders | 30c | 59.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Commanders | 24c | 59.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Patriots | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…f51dbacked Patriots | 74c | 52.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Commanders | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…54bcbacked Commanders | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7051…c559backed Patriots | 72c | 48.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Commanders | 30c | 48.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Commanders | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…b7cbbacked Commanders | 28c | 46.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed Patriots | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Commanders | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…40dabacked Commanders | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…01ccbacked Patriots | 73c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Patriots | 69c | 35.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Patriots | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0a62backed Patriots | 71c | 22.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Patriots | 70c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1e…7ba5backed Patriots | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8901…2abbbacked Patriots | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.