Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1ac23fe2659eaa2406a94ac7ce2f1d923e17aab334ac009e5f3c7ce3b89d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 71c | 1,374$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.35 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 75c | 1,141$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.9 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 416.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 287.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 285.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 283$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 54c | 282.36$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 217$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 196.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 184.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 38c | 180.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 142.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed Yes | 76c | 127.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 127.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 72c | 125.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 114$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 74c | 93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 79.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 76.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 71.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 23c | 58.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 47.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 45.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 72c | 45.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 78c | 18.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.