NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4080e0c7c19c166f07038f295abbcd4cbd4f5a752686e49a70c8474e6ffc52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 7,405$3,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.35 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 51c | 2,507$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.78 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 2,071$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.5 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,916$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,915$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.63 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 49c | 1,499$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.67 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over | 3c | 900$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 60c | 666.38$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.07 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 449.12$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 50c | 329$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Under | 44c | 205.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 56c | 166.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 51c | 149$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Under | 56c | 119.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…10f6backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 60.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 51c | 59.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Over | 56c | 52.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 48.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 50c | 44.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 51c | 33.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…c7fabacked Under | 50c | 29.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…b6c7backed Over | 43c | 29.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Under | 51c | 27.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…c64cbacked Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…475fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.