NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37f9a85bd3adb285a33aee06e8904bfc461c393c8124caee65bfac0825cc2b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Red Wings | 45c | 9,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,949.96 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 40c | 3,141$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.53 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings | 40c | 2,768$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.18 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Sharks | 60c | 2,493$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Sharks | 60c | 2,203$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sharks | 55c | 1,999$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.51 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Sharks | 59c | 1,528$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.33 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Sharks | 55c | 1,509$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks | 59c | 1,001$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.59 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93d…f0c4backed Sharks | 60c | 990$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Sharks | 61c | 924.39$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.08 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df6…6520backed Red Wings | 42c | 850$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sharks | 58c | 834.26$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.87 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Sharks | 55c | 777$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.35 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 42c | 713$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.83 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…84bdbacked Sharks | 55c | 652.63$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sharks | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Sharks | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Red Wings | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Red Wings | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Sharks | 55c | 350$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Sharks | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Sharks | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Sharks | 60c | 330.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Red Wings | 41c | 329.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.69 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…ce29backed Sharks | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…bf4abacked Sharks | 58c | 280$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…afbbbacked Sharks | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…0ae4backed Sharks | 58c | 270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Red Wings | 40c | 265.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Red Wings | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Sharks | 58c | 222.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Sharks | 60c | 220.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Sharks | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Sharks | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Sharks | 55c | 197.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sharks | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Red Wings | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Sharks | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Red Wings | 41c | 164.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Red Wings | 44c | 119.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 39c | 117.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Sharks | 60c | 110.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Sharks | 59c | 103$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed Sharks | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bc…45c3backed Red Wings | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Red Wings | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Red Wings | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 57c | 93.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Red Wings | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sharks | 55c | 83.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Red Wings | 43c | 83.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…1796backed Sharks | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Sharks | 60c | 66.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Sharks | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked Sharks | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Sharks | 59c | 50.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Red Wings | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Red Wings | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Sharks | 60c | 44.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Sharks | 63c | 43.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Red Wings | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Sharks | 55c | 39.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed5e…8da1backed Sharks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Sharks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Sharks | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Red Wings | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Red Wings | 41c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…ca88backed Sharks | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Sharks | 55c | 21.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Sharks | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Sharks | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sharks | 60c | 19.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Sharks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.