Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e58106552a616f056dd24b424e5357760786505f92cf2378885587301a1f2a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 16c | 16,632$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.56 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 25c | 7,312$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 4,625$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.77 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Over | 25c | 3,942$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 1,391$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.74 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 27c | 838$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.31 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 78c | 715.88$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 26c | 681.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Under | 76c | 581.38$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -41%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 26c | 424.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…bd21backed Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 74c | 382.8$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Under | 75c | 372.38$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 17c | 350$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Under | 75c | 332.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 24c | 324.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 20c | 320$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…f67ebacked Under | 75c | 277.11$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Under | 75c | 266.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…ca40backed Under | 77c | 221.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…4dcdbacked Under | 75c | 197$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 195.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 13c | 194.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Over | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 22c | 95.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…2c0abacked Under | 77c | 92.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 23c | 90.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 76c | 69.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 25c | 57.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 27c | 53.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…550fbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Over | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Under | 76c | 38.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 75c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5this page
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)Chelsea won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.