Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04228d694688ed2dedea156d2896e6e1b27997a6d49c1126eb580048a8e2ad9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelseaof Arsenal, Chelsea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arsenal | 20c | 20,858$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160.22 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Arsenal | 22c | 9,525$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal | 16c | 7,665$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.49 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arsenal | 19c | 2,453$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.23 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Arsenal | 20c | 1,966$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chelsea | 79c | 1,772$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.1 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Arsenal | 19c | 1,399$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Arsenal | 30c | 1,185$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Chelsea | 75c | 1,166$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.55 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Arsenal | 21c | 985.21$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.73 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal | 10c | 979.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chelsea | 77c | 844.71$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Arsenal | 30c | 830.68$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…9a01backed Arsenal | 18c | 570.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Arsenal | 19c | 508.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Arsenal | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Arsenal | 27c | 490.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arsenal | 18c | 472$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Arsenal | 17c | 386.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…6609backed Arsenal | 27c | 371.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…bd21backed Arsenal | 13c | 369.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfa…343dbacked Arsenal | 20c | 336.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5794backed Arsenal | 25c | 326.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Chelsea | 79c | 263.09$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chelsea | 79c | 208.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal | 14c | 206.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Arsenal | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Arsenal | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Arsenal | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Arsenal | 19c | 119.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Arsenal | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arsenal | 20c | 102.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Chelsea | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Arsenal | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Arsenal | 19c | 98.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…8800backed Arsenal | 18c | 95.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…05a1backed Arsenal | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Arsenal | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Arsenal | 15c | 72.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…c06cbacked Arsenal | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Arsenal | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Arsenal | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Arsenal | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Arsenal | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Chelsea | 79c | 48.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Chelsea | 79c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)this page
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.