Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e848326b34b4e7f53fff4135d547c5898b9936f723b531d3ac3da8dfb9b67ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 2,225$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,070$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 783.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 674.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 76c | 627.25$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 538.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 10c | 392.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 16c | 355.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 326.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 302.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 21c | 239.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 235.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 232.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 19c | 141.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 23c | 129.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 126.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 13c | 103.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 102$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 13c | 100.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 22c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 74.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 73.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 62.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 21c | 58.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 57.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 28c | 48.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 47.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 34.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed No | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.