Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e116772e743884de38b506e7837a6a03e1f7ef29fd165c7fa5644c6d016021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 1,593$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 28c | 450.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 18c | 405.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 402.77$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 357$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 349.58$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 266.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 79c | 256.63$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 28c | 242.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 15c | 232.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 209.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 191.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 179.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 178.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 67c | 153$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 149.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 37c | 128.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed No | 78c | 119.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 119$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 30c | 107.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 22c | 106.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 32c | 97.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 96.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 95.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 95.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 94.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 94.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 90.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 84.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 83.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 31c | 82.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 78.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 77.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 30c | 75.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 74.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 25c | 70.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 69.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 67.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 57.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 56.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 51.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 49.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 49.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 49.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 45.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 23c | 44.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 41.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…4ca1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 27c | 38.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 33c | 34.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 77c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.