Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8e34970266302ae2276c66a81259045e2a94e677bbcad767dcac1758f47caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 783.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 410.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 20c | 310$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 78c | 191.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 160.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 67c | 148.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 135.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 121.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 25c | 120.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…6396backed Yes | 28c | 109.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 108$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 103.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 103.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 98.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 96.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 90.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 89.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 21c | 81.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 49c | 58.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 58.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 57.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 57.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 60c | 55.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 53.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 32c | 51.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…290dbacked Yes | 42c | 44.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 41.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 40c | 41.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 40.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a3…567fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 31.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed No | 78c | 30.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 42c | 30.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 67c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 41c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…5b46backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 76c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.