Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ef76e8cc53dfd79732d0b2a7b414ce0318b72397c705eec147534629b19011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…0de3backed No | 25c | 589.39$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 77c | 516.27$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 420.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.89 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 33c | 409.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 73c | 383.97$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 324.35$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 4c | 323$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 5c | 279.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 255$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 234.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 209.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 189.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 29c | 173.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 173.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 138.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 138.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 137.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 134.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 113.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 108.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 63c | 107.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 75c | 105.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 104.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 37c | 103.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 78c | 99.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 98.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 97.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 76c | 92.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 61c | 81.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 81.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 60c | 80.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 18c | 80.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 79c | 80.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 52c | 79.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 74.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 69.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 71c | 68.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 64.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 28c | 63.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 59.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 57.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 56.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 53.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 20c | 51.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 51.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 48.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 46.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 80c | 43.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 45c | 43.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 27c | 38.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 37.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed Yes | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 77c | 36.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 72c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 64c | 34.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 34.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 31.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 30.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 36c | 30.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…b4e6backed Yes | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed Yes | 74c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 78c | 24.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 24.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 42c | 23.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.