Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e940aaddded4a26caced3861b4393bb4af7782da413c5758aa4a47fb7348dba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 1c | 15,542$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 11,413$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.39 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…9b71backed Yes | 1c | 1,902$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 34c | 1,324$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 64c | 1,195$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.11 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 66c | 1,020$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 74c | 899.49$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 36c | 806.66$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Yes | 6c | 617.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -86%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 604.96$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 37c | 543.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 505.38$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 73c | 469.99$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 24c | 414.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…8c53backed No | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…3303backed Yes | 13c | 358.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…1e55backed Yes | 24c | 357$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 4c | 341.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 5c | 316.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c08abacked Yes | 31c | 312.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…ae23backed Yes | 33c | 300.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 299.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 66c | 277.78$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 265.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 65c | 240.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed Yes | 8c | 239.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…aa0dbacked Yes | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 20c | 210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 9c | 195.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…b4dabacked No | 79c | 183.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 68c | 178$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 169.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…a8e5backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 37c | 135.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 72c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 66c | 130.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 11c | 127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked No | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 63c | 119.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 10c | 117.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +169.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…771fbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Yes | 33c | 105.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 91.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 36c | 63.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Yes | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 26c | 51.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 50.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…a6f4backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 72c | 43.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 34c | 43.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…6c2ebacked No | 64c | 38.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…1c6ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?Yes won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.