Earnings · resolved market
Will MillerKnoll (MLKN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eeb84c257e7d455b0dd6f32109c9b591682b693e1665f313ea839daf60df380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 0c | 9,739$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 68c | 666.3$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed No | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Yes | 76c | 601.88$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 592.78$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.13 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 78c | 453.12$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 381.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…caf5backed No | 27c | 301.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 233.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 27c | 206.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked No | 30c | 185.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4cefbacked No | 28c | 182.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 26c | 149.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe655…0bb4backed Yes | 72c | 138.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 40c | 125.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 120.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Yes | 74c | 117.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…4e1ebacked Yes | 79c | 109.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…e096backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…b404backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 78c | 75.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 72.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…7100backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 58.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…bc7cbacked Yes | 73c | 56.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…7806backed No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…53c2backed No | 29c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…0383backed No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 37.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 71c | 37.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…8d5dbacked Yes | 65c | 36.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a7…5f5ebacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ba…e182backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…7854backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7af…1645backed No | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Yes | 69c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…8655backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…3fb3backed Yes | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.