Tennis · resolved market

ASB Classic: Sonay Kartal vs Janice Tjen

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef48a091eb4d69281925a3205aedef3e138be81d99b08fd0f0bd3206468a008

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Kartalof Kartal, Tjen
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kartal	46c	8,084$3,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,381.71	761	46.6%355 W · 406 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Tjen	53c	3,343$1,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,760.96	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Kartal	47c	2,500$1,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,325	1,446	48.8%706 W · 740 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Tjen	54c	1,977$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.58	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Kartal	47c	1,908$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,010.57	551	43.4%239 W · 312 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Tjen	56c	1,250$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	416	45.4%189 W · 227 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…86f6backed Kartal	75c	951.36$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.61	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tjen	40c	846.88$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.53	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tjen	24c	785.16$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.07	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Kartal	51c	759.49$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.93	352	47.2%166 W · 186 L	-23.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Tjen	52c	743.81$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.78	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.19per pick	68cpaid	+25%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tjen	44c	726.1$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.94	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kartal	79c	711.97$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.97	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Tjen	40c	687.43$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.13	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Tjen	60c	667.45$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1,186	62.8%745 W · 441 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tjen	43c	409.58$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.1	1,410	38.4%542 W · 868 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kartal	66c	408.56$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.81	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Tjen	43c	408$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.24	255	42%107 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Tjen	5c	401.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	87	13.8%12 W · 75 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kartal	56c	371.17$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.62	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tjen	31c	317.33$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.74	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Tjen	54c	310.84$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.18	1,588	47%746 W · 842 L	-24.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Tjen	52c	310.25$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.93	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ede…d6a7backed Tjen	35c	300$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cc…b660backed Tjen	44c	299.99$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	70	17.1%12 W · 58 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tjen	25c	283.52$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.38	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Tjen	56c	250$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Tjen	47c	210.23$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d8…c2e7backed Tjen	46c	203.76$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.73	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Tjen	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	466	49.8%232 W · 234 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked Tjen	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Tjen	53c	190.73$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.09	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.9wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Tjen	54c	186.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.74	423	58.6%248 W · 175 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe12f…24d7backed Kartal	80c	177.9$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.58	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Tjen	53c	158$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.74	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tjen	24c	144.01$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.93	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Tjen	53c	129$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.37	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Tjen	36c	128.14$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.32	281	39.1%110 W · 171 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x320f…b4a3backed Tjen	52c	128$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.07	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Tjen	24c	127.5$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	1,379	16.4%226 W · 1,153 L	-108.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Tjen	48c	122$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.56	62	50%31 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…c85ebacked Tjen	51c	120$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Kartal	57c	120$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.6	593	48.9%290 W · 303 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd6…b4ffbacked Kartal	49c	120$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fa…c468backed Tjen	30c	116.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Tjen	48c	115.25$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2,145	54.2%1,162 W · 983 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tjen	19c	106.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6d…67c3backed Kartal	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.19per pick	57cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Tjen	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	102	8.8%9 W · 93 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e70…c8ebbacked Tjen	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Kartal	48c	93.09$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.09	191	29.8%57 W · 134 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Kartal	46c	91.87$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.52	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Tjen	50c	88.43$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	296	36.8%109 W · 187 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x632d…60ccbacked Kartal	49c	80$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc7…4923backed Tjen	51c	80$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4892…27bcbacked Tjen	47c	76.6$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Kartal	47c	75.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kartal	67c	72$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Tjen	27c	66.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	222	36.9%82 W · 140 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Tjen	19c	66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Tjen	51c	54$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Kartal	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Kartal	47c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	316	50%158 W · 158 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Tjen	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	398	50%199 W · 199 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Tjen	53c	45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e71…8913backed Kartal	47c	45$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab0…8383backed Kartal	49c	44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.44	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Kartal	47c	38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Kartal	47c	38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa523…d782backed Kartal	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d19…0b39backed Kartal	47c	37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.61	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9430…97cebacked Kartal	47c	37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.61	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1725…7405backed Tjen	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4738backed Tjen	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Kartal	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Kartal	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0785…4eb0backed Tjen	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Tjen	53c	29.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Tjen	56c	28.55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	364	64.3%234 W · 130 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…ceeabacked Tjen	49c	28.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Kartal	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67c…44adbacked Kartal	50c	25.2$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed Kartal	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Kartal	47c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac09…a283backed Tjen	47c	23.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Kartal	47c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.25per pick	46cpaid	+76.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Kartal	60c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ASB Classic: Sonay Kartal vs Janice Tjen

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market