Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f601c690d975cc9ad5a3aed3d6912ae9252995dd52dbc219a1857dc5602cd25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 13c | 497.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.41 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 382.09$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 358.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 42c | 315.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 244$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 228.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 215.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 214.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 207.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 188.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 41c | 181.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 175.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 124.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 119.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 17c | 116.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 114.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 12c | 112.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 32c | 108.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 107.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 39c | 105.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 99.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 60c | 85.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 79c | 84.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 79.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 79.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 79.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 77.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 76.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 71.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 67.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 59.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed No | 39c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 52.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…08c5backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 40.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 71c | 35.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 35.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 32.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 31.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 73c | 30.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fde…c9cabacked Yes | 57c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 65c | 23.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.