Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc9bde2f7317575305c0d95fbc6538c7465ea1508e06a67f3402f62df9251cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 51c | 396.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 31c | 360.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 322.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 290.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 270.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 54c | 259.37$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 228.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 224.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 9c | 222.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 68c | 219.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 61c | 218.26$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 212.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 48c | 183.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 178.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 173$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 24c | 167.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 154$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 55c | 150.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 56c | 145.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 57c | 136.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 133.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 132.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 78c | 131.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 37c | 128.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 127.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 126.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 36c | 121.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 119.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 118.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 48c | 113.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 111.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 46c | 106.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 104.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 34c | 103.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 97.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 12c | 90.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 62c | 88.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 55c | 81.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 79.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 52c | 79.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 66c | 76.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 40c | 74.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 74.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 68.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 67.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…08c5backed Yes | 50c | 65.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 65.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 60.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 60.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 59.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 56.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 54.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 51.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0969backed No | 52c | 48.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 47.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 46.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 44.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 42.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 33c | 40.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fde…c9cabacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 56c | 39.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 39.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 61c | 37.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 35.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 34c | 32.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 31.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 50c | 29.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 28.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 28.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 27.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 47c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 22.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 57c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.