Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e646db7acce6f3ee7330cd2b52dd7665743da98695929afbb70029925eb03ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 538.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 501.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 79c | 444$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 325.21$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 36c | 310$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 172.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 29c | 151.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 142.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 130.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 32c | 129.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 125.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 39c | 124.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 117.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 113.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 9c | 111.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 91.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 79.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 61.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 57.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 55.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 52.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 47.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 44.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 43.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 42.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 42.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 39.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 39.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed Yes | 39c | 33.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 33.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 17.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.