TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Orioles, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians57c8,076$4,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.1486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Orioles41c5,100$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.6714042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee1…dae8backed Orioles45c3,364$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.666456.3%36 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Orioles36c3,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0702835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Guardians55c2,845$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.1338444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles41c2,443$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.292,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles45c2,398$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.772,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Orioles43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Guardians61c2,262$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.036443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Guardians55c2,182$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.826749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Orioles46c2,176$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.761,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Guardians52c2,134$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.3531248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Orioles52c1,910$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles34c1,578$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.056,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Guardians65c1,511$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.3497950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Orioles43c1,240$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.0323545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Guardians54c1,182$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.7216352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Orioles45c1,118$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4718349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Orioles46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0228042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Guardians54c1,066$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2738249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Guardians55c977.95$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.085352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4227…83bbbacked Guardians55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fb…c2aebacked Orioles46c892.58$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Guardians53c871.21$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.476550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles23c737.97$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4695930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles38c732.92$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.524,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Guardians55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.2788549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9a…ba53backed Guardians55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.271369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Guardians54c700$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1275…5b87backed Orioles56c671$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8412924.8%32 W · 97 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Guardians75c602.33$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5848254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles45c509.1$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.091,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Guardians54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23042452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians78c500$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.382,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23016934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Orioles45c499.91$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4622142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Guardians53c469.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.887847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Guardians54c466.55$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6110550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles45c456.36$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.365,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians51c444.59$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.851,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles46c439.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.21,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Guardians48c413.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.871,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Guardians70c364.48$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8915151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles40c353.38$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8770841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles46c299.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Guardians55c275.54$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9924253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Orioles27c262.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0141643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Orioles33c260.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8541747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbccd…6aeebacked Guardians55c223.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.644045%18 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles45c223$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3540548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Orioles47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Guardians62c205.81$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0443946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7e…4b6fbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf716…c440backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c2…0705backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8a…1a07backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5070…0039backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ee…7fb2backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9752…bd2ebacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903271.9%23 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+46.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4e4b…d536backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4f…2737backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90df…18cfbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc909…6393backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa51b…8938backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bf5…ee08backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7811…36d3backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a54…7d39backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafbd…67aebacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb75…bd65backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…06b5backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b2…88d1backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d59…569ebacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffe…8149backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3601…43dfbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…d335backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903450%17 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f02…8dcebacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903450%17 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72d…aa23backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12de…d4b5backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…aa96backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53b5…7e4fbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x600b…45eabacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…eea8backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…324cbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4c…408cbacked Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd5…b301backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa926…684fbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda05…8b12backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…8894backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf46…d661backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…4508backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a1…8065backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5018…d3eabacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc79…3e8dbacked Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a04…bdf5backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb76…d412backed Guardians55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99e1…51d0backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d35…0700backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fd…0d4bbacked Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…3468backed Orioles45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.