Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fba09151878f1bf2b59d50c4471eb9628090540dad164e6e41fec3fc14899d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 77c | 1,304$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.61 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,265$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 766.29$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 634.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 80c | 451.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 384.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 294$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 269.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 78c | 258.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 255.53$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 241.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 213.28$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 206.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 204.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 166.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 65c | 154.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 27c | 146.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 23c | 137.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 133.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 62c | 129.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 26c | 111.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 77c | 104.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 23c | 100.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 99.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 71.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 16c | 68.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 27c | 67.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 60.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 56.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 23c | 55.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 23c | 53.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 53.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 76c | 49.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 45.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 44.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 42.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 26c | 39.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 78c | 29.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 26.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed No | 75c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 80c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.