Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c12ab3e2ec9f185bf49ee14400583a4a6f8b66febd7e16c3d77fecfbd5b231f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 445.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 65c | 441.16$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.37 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 353.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 34c | 289.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 288.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 253.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 225.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 67c | 220.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 71c | 212$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 209.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 201$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 7c | 141.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 129.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 120.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…8e6abacked Yes | 10c | 117.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 116.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 102.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 28c | 85.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 62c | 80.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 33c | 77.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 35c | 73.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 20c | 69.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 55.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 50.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 49.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 25c | 42.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 29c | 36.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 22.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 21.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 78c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 17.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.