Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39151fbdc5b4d5d262f98c4bf13e197c5929645b94cc7cd77d6bb559e70670d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 935.43$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 715.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.82 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 47c | 426.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 400.9$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 391.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 39c | 323$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 292.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 255.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 237.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 45c | 205.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 171.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 50c | 156$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 141.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 39c | 134.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 131.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 126.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 121$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 62c | 118$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 42c | 117.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 111.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 103.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 96.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 61c | 91.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 86.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 18c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 68.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 40c | 62.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 48c | 62.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 56.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 56.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 56.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 54.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 46c | 53.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 78c | 49.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 44c | 49.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 57c | 45.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…e152backed Yes | 51c | 39.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 48c | 37.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 36.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 35.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 31.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 56c | 29.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 29.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 61c | 29.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 53c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 61c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…d248backed Yes | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…6bf7backed No | 60c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…e6c9backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 63c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed No | 65c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.