Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fdf8d88e58d9fef13b29de4208a631d84e96a3f6f7732d9524382b3d4f3ef1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sport Lisboa e Benficaof Real Madrid CF, Sport Lisboa e Benfica
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 2,654$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.58 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Real Madrid CF | 14c | 2,297$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Real Madrid CF | 16c | 1,253$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Real Madrid CF | 14c | 999$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Real Madrid CF | 15c | 963.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 893$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 80c | 624.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 613.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Real Madrid CF | 17c | 471.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Real Madrid CF | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Real Madrid CF | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 212 | 17%36 W · 176 L | -37.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 213.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 201.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Real Madrid CF | 13c | 183.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Real Madrid CF | 17c | 164.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Real Madrid CF | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Real Madrid CF | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Real Madrid CF | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Real Madrid CF | 16c | 70.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.