Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b02cd0705f39d505dc6cd0b58ce0447320ee85385c68fb36fb9f200245a22c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 17c | 15,926$2,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.72 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 13,666$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.32 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 6,049$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.1 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 16c | 5,063$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.89 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 77c | 3,897$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.28 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 20c | 3,099$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.71 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 1,785$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 19c | 1,639$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.41 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 1,613$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.39 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Over | 23c | 1,417$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.38 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 17c | 1,249$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…5a51backed Over | 21c | 953.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 821.04$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 18c | 805.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 30c | 677.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 662.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked Over | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 29c | 489.42$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 13c | 405.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 17c | 371.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Under | 74c | 319.61$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 7c | 284.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Over | 11c | 279.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 60c | 230$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -8.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 44c | 227.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 219.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Under | 58c | 172.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…359bbacked Over | 19c | 169.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Under | 49c | 167.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 62c | 161.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…d1fdbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 78c | 121.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 18c | 119.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…ec49backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…b538backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 79c | 88.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 21c | 78.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…22dbbacked Over | 26c | 76.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Under | 70c | 72.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 22c | 69.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Over | 19c | 69.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 60.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 178 | 48.9%87 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…fe88backed Over | 22c | 54.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 79c | 49.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…546dbacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 57c | 42.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 59c | 38.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 212 | 17%36 W · 176 L | -37.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 42c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Under | 80c | 28.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…1378backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.