Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebec4efad33bb0ecf548ced4987249ee4154aaf469e64bcecd0da391c172fdcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 17,883$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.65 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 80c | 5,179$4,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 4,024$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.37 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Over | 80c | 3,370$2,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 20c | 3,157$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.31 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 80c | 1,987$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.46 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 75c | 1,557$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.3 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 19c | 1,518$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 1,379$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.23 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 79c | 1,335$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 1,036$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Under | 18c | 999.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Over | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 786.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 18c | 488.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 17c | 455$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…4a59backed Over | 79c | 399.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 391.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 21c | 332.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 79c | 317.72$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 257.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…ea76backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 20c | 203.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…3ad2backed Under | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Over | 11c | 178.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 18c | 164.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 21c | 146.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 18c | 143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 19c | 131.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…d6e0backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Under | 16c | 88.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 73.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 19c | 65.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…3b30backed Over | 80c | 50.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…01eebacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 80c | 26.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…f948backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…d91abacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…aefdbacked Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.