CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60a7f252aff592fbf8318c1e36fdbbfb7600e41b755cbf0d72e959f65e4c0b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e0a…a1ebbacked Vitality | 48c | 6,997$3,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…f8e6backed Vitality | 48c | 6,512$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,386.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…baa3backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 5,463$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…0145backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 5,258$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 2,950$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.37 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…7fb2backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 2,788$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Vitality | 49c | 2,104$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.04 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Vitality | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 1,257$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.99 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Vitality | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…7626backed Vitality | 49c | 650$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…30f3backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked Vitality | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 344.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 846 | 58.4%494 W · 352 L | +60.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…269bbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 201.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 420 | 50%210 W · 210 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Vitality | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Vitality | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Vitality | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…61e7backed Vitality | 48c | 54.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed Vitality | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Vitality | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Vitality | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 271 | 50.6%137 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b8…7895backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Vitality | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…400dbacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Aurora Gaming | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.