TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Monaco vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Monacoof Monaco, Hapoel Tel Aviv
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,409 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27b0…fc67backed Hapoel Tel Aviv19c10,166$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.841656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Monaco73c6,582$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.632055%11 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c4,295$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.26520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-69.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Monaco58c4,124$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.172133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ecb…2e4fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv23c3,483$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Monaco60c3,290$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hapoel Tel Aviv26c2,705$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.2543543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Monaco53c2,672$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Monaco74c2,271$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.7328943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c1,788$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.464434.1%15 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Monaco53c1,645$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.0113147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Monaco54c1,434$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.785151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Monaco54c1,370$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Monaco54c1,362$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv40c1,324$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.7554251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Hapoel Tel Aviv32c1,201$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.91921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x62de…39fbbacked Monaco54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv42c1,069$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.575642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Monaco54c1,020$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Hapoel Tel Aviv41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe458…7abebacked Monaco54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+46.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Monaco80c994.6$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.726744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Monaco54c973.46$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+121.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Hapoel Tel Aviv8c969.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1214037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Monaco54c959.69$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+95.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c841.39$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv47c793.92$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.145545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c727.02$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.252536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Hapoel Tel Aviv9c664.86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8113220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Monaco70c546.9$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5235234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c525.87$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c489.69$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.261850%9 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c466.51$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.943040%12 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c457.1$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.983740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df3…bb17backed Monaco55c442.27$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.025450%27 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.648247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…7a4ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv30c395.97$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.793636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0302…9070backed Monaco54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed Monaco76c351.09$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.367100%7 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+110.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Hapoel Tel Aviv47c346.08$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.662227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Monaco55c336.08$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.244042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hapoel Tel Aviv41c330$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.326935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c290.46$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6112040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Monaco49c276.86$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.224430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Monaco68c240.2$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.921535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3b…e3eabacked Hapoel Tel Aviv40c235.82$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c229.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.528936%32 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Monaco55c224.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.559851%50 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c212.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.966142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c212.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.961650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c212.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.965541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c212.87$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1154…0d31backed Hapoel Tel Aviv47c193.64$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.013450%17 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c52…6431backed Hapoel Tel Aviv14c190.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.582040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c182.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.621764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Monaco54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.83757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e5…6199backed Hapoel Tel Aviv23c177.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.961844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Hapoel Tel Aviv23c169.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x408b…8f1bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv51c165.69$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Hapoel Tel Aviv20c160.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.864841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc4…b91ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c155.66$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1c…95dcbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv49c147.74$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.722564%16 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…0f7dbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv40c146.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Hapoel Tel Aviv17c146$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.823053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv8c141.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d9…dd5abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv10c139.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c130.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.092846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Monaco56c126.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9713751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8340…b29bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv27c118.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c114.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.262751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f73…1463backed Monaco54c111.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57bf…0169backed Monaco55c106.15$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3398…e348backed Hapoel Tel Aviv19c101.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Hapoel Tel Aviv46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c95.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.968653.5%46 W · 40 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Monaco76c93.76$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Monaco54c92.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.497741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Monaco54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.424355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Monaco68c87.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.584374.4%32 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Monaco53c85.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Monaco69c84.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9719748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…8581backed Hapoel Tel Aviv48c80.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv26c80.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x549d…35b9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv35c79.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.831346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c78.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.75453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf762…54b9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv38c76.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.881241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x623b…8facbacked Monaco53c74.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b5…b6c8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv47c72.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Monaco54c71.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.15453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…6282backed Hapoel Tel Aviv28c69.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv24c69.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.496119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Hapoel Tel Aviv25c68.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.925517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv47c61.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.051450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842d…2c60backed Monaco55c60.33$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…7436backed Hapoel Tel Aviv34c55.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea87…8066backed Monaco57c55.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3101…e57fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv46c54.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Monaco54c54.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.853053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.