TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Nottingham 3: William Jansen vs Felix Gill

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Felix Gillof William Jansen, Felix Gill
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84d0…95babacked William Jansen18c19,036$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006418.8%12 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Felix Gill74c12,601$9,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,314.9911,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Felix Gill73c4,202$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.435,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed William Jansen20c2,980$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.755,19928.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L-18.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Felix Gill66c2,475$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.57,74550.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L+93.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed William Jansen31c2,248$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.172,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed William Jansen30c2,018$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.738,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Felix Gill69c1,859$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.218,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Felix Gill66c1,505$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.936,41154.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L+283.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked Felix Gill71c1,503$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.6825255.2%139 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked William Jansen26c1,487$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.113,86234.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L+92.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed William Jansen34c1,381$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.532,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Felix Gill78c1,256$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.413661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed William Jansen21c1,000$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.599,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked William Jansen25c881.73$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.986,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Felix Gill75c779.09$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.14,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Felix Gill66c738.98$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.241,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Felix Gill75c477$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.253357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed William Jansen31c417.79$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.231,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Felix Gill71c407.61$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.211,07360.4%648 W · 425 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed William Jansen39c400$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.834,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Felix Gill60c343.98$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5943148.7%210 W · 221 L-2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed William Jansen22c318.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9858757.8%339 W · 248 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Felix Gill71c304.23$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2339260.5%237 W · 155 L-1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Felix Gill66c304$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5172755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Felix Gill67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5117659.1%104 W · 72 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked William Jansen23c295.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.252,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed William Jansen23c290$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.771,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Felix Gill62c289.13$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.874,88238.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L-17.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…2302backed Felix Gill70c286.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Felix Gill76c279.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked William Jansen30c273.5$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.81,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed William Jansen22c272.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6044042.3%186 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked William Jansen28c271.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.181,10145.1%497 W · 604 L-36.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed William Jansen34c260.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.413,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Felix Gill74c259.6$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.271,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Felix Gill78c250.38$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.21,76446.8%826 W · 938 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed William Jansen22c248.1$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.582,39438.4%920 W · 1,474 L+87.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39ce…e2bdbacked Felix Gill62c240.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8213056.2%73 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed William Jansen38c228.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.471,95843.7%856 W · 1,102 L-21.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Felix Gill77c218.86$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked William Jansen22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,54049.2%758 W · 782 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Felix Gill69c194.61$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.423,63154.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L+110.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Felix Gill64c181.3$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.271,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Felix Gill59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4988935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7629…ef05backed Felix Gill60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6737262.9%234 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Felix Gill67c154$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5656153.7%301 W · 260 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecd3…8289backed Felix Gill65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.855100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda70…37e3backed Felix Gill69c145.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.075545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Felix Gill71c142.09$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2189659.6%534 W · 362 L+1.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde2f…ad33backed William Jansen14c142$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8825336.4%92 W · 161 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Felix Gill66c137.89$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8843552.9%230 W · 205 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Felix Gill80c137.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.638,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Felix Gill67c136$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3927550.2%138 W · 137 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Felix Gill70c125.57$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.671,77348.6%861 W · 912 L+28.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Felix Gill80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2586470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed William Jansen43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,57546.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Felix Gill66c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6475350.5%380 W · 373 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked William Jansen35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3592352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed William Jansen14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Felix Gill58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.339444.4%175 W · 219 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Felix Gill72c99.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2824740.1%99 W · 148 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed William Jansen22c92.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3651644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4462…bfdfbacked Felix Gill68c92.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5118147%85 W · 96 L-24.1wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Felix Gill75c91.24$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.911,83057.7%1,056 W · 774 L+105.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed William Jansen20c88.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.121,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked William Jansen30c86.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.71,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked William Jansen33c85.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.121,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Felix Gill63c83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.341,21955%670 W · 549 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed William Jansen29c77.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.731,07956.3%608 W · 471 L+50.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed William Jansen35c76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.639451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Felix Gill66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7640350.6%204 W · 199 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Felix Gill67c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6529551.5%152 W · 143 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed William Jansen23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.253,80945.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L-35.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Felix Gill65c74.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.874151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Felix Gill67c74.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9869947.8%334 W · 365 L-3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Felix Gill71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4244051.6%227 W · 213 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Felix Gill71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31,80258.9%1,062 W · 740 L+5.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf80…9163backed Felix Gill66c68.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked William Jansen39c60.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4730235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…9b3ebacked Felix Gill66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.592152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed William Jansen22c59.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.196,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed William Jansen32c58.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.631,37144.5%610 W · 761 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Felix Gill72c50.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1843950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Felix Gill66c49.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9855149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Felix Gill66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.321447.2%101 W · 113 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked William Jansen24c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5223427.4%64 W · 170 L-40.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x767e…98cabacked Felix Gill71c42.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4640661.3%249 W · 157 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Felix Gill75c41.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3473048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dca…da77backed Felix Gill74c40.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5115458.4%90 W · 64 L+13.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Felix Gill58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.888273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…87b1backed Felix Gill70c39.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Felix Gill65c39.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9633164%212 W · 119 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bef…5f5dbacked William Jansen29c39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3113965.5%91 W · 48 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x201d…30cabacked Felix Gill78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Felix Gill66c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5597852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Felix Gill76c35.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb93…94cfbacked Felix Gill77c35.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.23450%17 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked Felix Gill78c35.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.752965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+32.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c82…00d5backed Felix Gill78c35.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.