MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61053e1c4bc76b7170b8f47ddfd5d19df8a47e9527cc7aa36e7da735b42a2984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 2,852$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 2,332$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.81 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 1,826$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.05 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 1,424$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 935.46$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 718.61$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 712.82$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.82 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 599.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 388.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 339.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 252.68$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 17c | 244.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 242.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 145.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 77.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 61.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 53.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 39.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 26.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.