MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf96772bf337c18f8261e0c58371351131bc0c1d2dc2f83fc674dc53b1e94c659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 54c | 9,249$4,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.52 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 8,497$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,576.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 4,274$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 76c | 3,947$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.37 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 74c | 2,955$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.05 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 2,448$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 1,856$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.77 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 596.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 76c | 578.95$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 55c | 577.56$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.66 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 257.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 40c | 212$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 190.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 49c | 170.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 162.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 44c | 125.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 45c | 102.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Under | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 43c | 49.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 55c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 50c | 25.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 45c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 23.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 56c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 61c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.