Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610ee78437f14813b2a61b997f0a202e47c67df0d025ede85e9f7966e9d6f60a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 11c | 15,348$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.8 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 79c | 8,000$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f45…180bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,999$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes | 16c | 2,810$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.6 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…b0e6backed Yes | 17c | 2,632$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.37 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…56febacked Yes | 21c | 2,552$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 15c | 2,294$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.07 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…c474backed Yes | 17c | 1,955$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 16c | 1,900$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,851$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.48 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…f62cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 16c | 1,379$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.64 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…90f4backed Yes | 17c | 1,105$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,021$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 139 | 39.6%55 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…59d0backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked Yes | 16c | 744$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 294 | 58.2%171 W · 123 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…63b7backed Yes | 16c | 708.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 15c | 439.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 74c | 378$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 363.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed Yes | 16c | 329.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 13c | 267.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 255.05$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 18c | 233.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 16c | 231$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +15.6wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +437.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Yes | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…db53backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d1…4adcbacked Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 165.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…53afbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…fab8backed Yes | 15c | 135.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 14c | 122.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 17c | 103.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…92e7backed Yes | 14c | 101.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…c651backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…c4efbacked No | 78c | 99.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…0653backed Yes | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 98.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 382 | 33.2%127 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 15c | 98.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…67e4backed Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…d753backed Yes | 15c | 87.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…a89abacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…6f95backed Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…0b96backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…e678backed Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…1e5bbacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 16c | 64.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…cfe3backed Yes | 16c | 62.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f27…fc32backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 52.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…cf01backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fcd6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.