Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61408ad04eb885d4f6461a85b36f3c6a93806d80d357fefbfff80d6ee80376d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 72c | 2,206$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.98 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 1,866$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.1 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 936.41$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.19 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 30c | 933$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 765.99$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 714$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 70c | 713.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 701.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 613.65$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.79 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 601.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 24c | 440$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…ee18backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…6f02backed Yes | 26c | 388.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ab…fb13backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 292.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 71c | 282.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 30c | 270$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 118 | 12.7%15 W · 103 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 21c | 262.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 247.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 228.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 70c | 216.23$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 29c | 206.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 201.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 77c | 195.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 79c | 156.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 148.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 23c | 143.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 29c | 115.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…55b8backed Yes | 30c | 103.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 23c | 101.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed No | 79c | 86.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…72f2backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 81.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked No | 71c | 79.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 77.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 32c | 75.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 74.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…5b4cbacked Yes | 29c | 67.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 63.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 305 | 48.5%148 W · 157 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked No | 77c | 63.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…6fd2backed Yes | 30c | 62.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 77c | 49.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…a7e6backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…1eebbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 29c | 37.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 72c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed No | 77c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.