Us Politics · resolved market
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61525b3ad17cb82b7baac27da82bd1d23f3c7ccb25db194c531547912905be0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $521,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $771,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4634…9222backed Yes | 1c | 60,218$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 67c | 7,057$4,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…4abcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,008$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 32c | 2,941$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.04 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,584$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,463$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d7…6837backed Yes | 2c | 1,594$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 53c | 1,562$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.2 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…b6fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,389$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 53c | 1,377$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.08 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…8585backed Yes | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…65d8backed Yes | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd21…5444backed No | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…68ffbacked No | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…b094backed No | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…9c20backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…da72backed No | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…ae5ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…3785backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…aca0backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…0117backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…2b9dbacked No | 55c | 1,050$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,025$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…db84backed Yes | 2c | 993$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…ec16backed Yes | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…9184backed Yes | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…db77backed Yes | 2c | 882$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…e40dbacked Yes | 2c | 866$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 34c | 865$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…ab8bbacked Yes | 2c | 852$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…c2bbbacked No | 65c | 850$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b7…68c8backed No | 65c | 844.44$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…a570backed Yes | 45c | 833$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…d327backed Yes | 45c | 833$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…b034backed No | 55c | 833$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5d…21cbbacked Yes | 2c | 736$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…1173backed Yes | 2c | 703$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…24d3backed Yes | 2c | 692$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…0211backed Yes | 2c | 691$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…ef10backed Yes | 2c | 669$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 2c | 590.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 48c | 558.26$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 525.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed No | 30c | 490.41$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 49c | 395.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 32c | 348.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 78c | 315$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6612backed Yes | 53c | 189.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 41c | 181.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 69c | 118.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 35c | 100.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…0977backed Yes | 39c | 99.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…d575backed Yes | 24c | 86.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 35c | 69.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked No | 33c | 56.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 60c | 53.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…e875backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…4fdebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 51c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…6a94backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 67c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…a174backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.